(05 Oct 2021)
IATA published its latest outlook for airline industry
financial performance at its AGM in Boston on Monday.

Highlights include:

– Net industry losses are expected to reduce to
$11.6 billion in 2022 after a $51.8 billion loss in 2021 (worsened
from the $47.7 billion loss estimated in April). Net 2020 loss
estimates have been revised to $137.7 billion (from $126.4
billion). Adding these up, total industry losses in 2020-2022 are
expected to reach $201 billion.

– Demand (RPKs) is expected to stand at 40% of
2019 levels for 2021, rising to 61% in 2022.

– Total passenger numbers are expected to reach
2.3 billion in 2021. This will grow to 3.4 billion in 2022 which
is similar to 2014 levels and significantly below the 4.5 billion
travelers of 2019.

– Robust demand for air cargo is expected to
continue with 2021 demand at 7.9% above 2019 levels, growing to
13.2% above 2019 levels for 2022.

“The magnitude of the COVID19 crisis for airlines
is enormous. Over the 2020-2022 period total losses could top $200
billion,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “To survive
airlines have dramatically cut costs and adapted their business to
whatever opportunities were available. That will see the $137.7
billion loss of 2020 reduce to $52 billion this year. And that
will further reduce to $12 billion in 2022. We are well past the
deepest point of the crisis. While serious issues remain, the path
to recovery is coming into view. Aviation is demonstrating its
resilience yet again.”

The air cargo business is performing well, and
domestic travel will near pre-crisis levels in 2022. The challenge
is international markets which remain severely depressed as
government-imposed restrictions continue.

“People have not
lost their desire to travel as we see in solid domestic market
resilience. But they are being held back from international travel
by restrictions, uncertainty and complexity,” Walsh said. “More governments are
seeing vaccinations as a way out of this crisis. We fully agree
that vaccinated people should not have their freedom of movement
limited in any way. In fact, the freedom to travel is a good
incentive for more people to be vaccinated. Governments must work
together and do everything in their power to ensure that vaccines
are available to anybody who wants them.”

Re-establishing global connectivity, the 11.3 million jobs
(pre-COVID19) in the aviation industry, and the $3.5 trillion of
GDP associated with travel and tourism should be priorities for

“Aviation is resilient and
resourceful, but the scale of this crisis needs solutions that
only governments can provide. Financial support was a lifeline for
many airlines during the crisis. Much of that—approximately $110
billion— is in the form of support that needs to be paid back. Combined with commercial borrowing the industry is now highly
leveraged. We don’t want handouts, but wage support measures to
retain critical skills may be necessary for some airlines until
governments enable international travel at scale. And regulatory
alleviations—like continued slot wavers while international
traffic recovers—will be needed well into 2022,” said Walsh.

Outlook Drivers

Global demand,
measured in RPKs, is recovering steadily.

– In 2021
overall demand is expected to reach 40% of pre-crisis (2019)
levels. Capacity is expected to increase faster than demand
growth, reaching 50% of pre-crisis levels for 2021. The average
passenger load factor in 2021 is expected to be just 67.1%, a
level not seen since 1994.

– In 2022 overall demand is expected
to reach 61% of pre-crisis (2019) levels. Capacity is expected to
continue to increase faster than demand, reaching 67% of
pre-crisis levels for 2022. Average passenger load factors are
expected to recover to 75.1%, a level exceeded in every year since
2005 until this crisis hit, and far below the 82.6% record set in

Domestic demand, with fewer restrictions in
most countries, is driving the recovery. Global GDP is expected to
grow by 5.8% in 2021 and a further 4.1% in 2022. Additionally,
accumulated consumer savings (worth 10-20% of GDP in some
countries) is supporting the alleviation of pent-up demand in
unrestricted domestic markets.

– In 2021 domestic demand
is expected to reach 73% of pre-crisis (2019) levels.

– In
2022 domestic demand is expected to reach 93% of pre-crisis (2019)

International demand is the slowest to
recover owing to continuing restrictions on the freedom of
movement across borders, quarantine measures and traveler

– In 2021 international demand is expected to
reach 22% of pre-crisis (2019) levels.

– In 2022 international
demand is expected to reach 44% of pre-crisis (2019) levels.

Cargo demand (measured in CTK) is strong as companies
continue to re-stock. The World Trade Organization forecasts world
trade to grow at 9.5% in 2021 and 5.6% in 2022.

– In 2021
cargo demand is expected to exceed pre-crisis (2019) levels by 8%.

– In 2022 cargo demand is expected to exceed pre-crisis (2019)
levels by 13%.

Revenue and Yield

revenues in 2021 are expected to grow by 26.7% compared to 2020 to
$472 billion (similar to 2009 levels). Further growth of 39.3% in
2022 will see industry revenues rise to $658 billion (similar to
2011 levels).

– The passenger business will contribute
$227 billion to industry revenues in 2021, rising to $378 billion
in 2022. Passenger yields declined each year between 2012 and
2020. In 2021 yields are expected to grow by 2.0% and a further
10% in 2022.

– Cargo revenues are expected to rise to a record
$175 billion in 2021 with a similar $169 billion expected in 2022.
Cargo yields are expected to grow by 15% in 2021 but decline by 8%
in 2022.


Airlines achieved aggressive
cost reductions having reduced overall expenses by 34% in 2021
compared to 2019. Costs, however, will rise in 2022 and will be
only 15% lower compared with pre-crisis levels with expanded
operations and higher fuel prices.

– The price of jet
kerosene was the only respite for airlines in 2020. It fell to
$46.6/barrel in 2020 from $77/barrel in 2019. Kerosene prices
increased to an average of $74.5/barrel in 2021 and are expected
to rise further to $77.8/barrel in 2022.

– Non-fuel unit costs
rose 19% in 2020 compared to 2019, as fixed costs had to be spread
over a dramatically smaller capacity base. This will partially
reverse in 2021 with an 8% reduction from 2020 levels. Capacity
growth will spread fixed costs more broadly while cost cutting
efforts continue. In 2022, we expect a 2% increase.


Vaccinations are proving to be a key
driver for government relaxation of border control measures. Quick
progress, with some exceptions, of vaccine distribution in
developed economies is progressively giving governments the
confidence to re-open borders and people the confidence to travel.
Parts of the world with slower vaccine distribution (developing
economies and some developed economies in Asia Pacific) will take
longer to see an industry recovery.

Aviation Performance

All regions will improve their collective
financial performance compared to 2020. The strongest performing
region is North America which is expected to see a $5.5 billion
loss in 2021 transform to a $9.9 billion profit in 2022. All other
regions will see reduced losses in 2022 compared to 2021.

Asia-Pacific carriers are
expected to see losses diminish from $11.2 billion in 2021 to $2.4
billion in 2022. The region continues to suffer some of the most
draconian travel restrictions. While there has been some
alleviation in restrictions, significant improvements in
international markets are not expected until later in 2022.
Reduced losses are expected to be achieved on the back of large
and largely open domestic markets, not least of which is China.
The region’s carriers are also benefitting disproportionally from
the strength of air cargo markets in which they are dominant.

North American carriers are expected to outperform other regions
on the back of fast recovery of the US domestic market. The
opening of the US market to vaccinated travelers from November
2021 will progress the recovery to international markets. The US
industry started to turn cash-positive in the second quarter of
2021 and will be the only region in positive financial territory
in 2022 with an expected $9.9 billion profit.

carriers will see their losses cut from $20.9 billion in 2021 to
$9.2 billion in 2022. Shifting rules and confused application of
EC recommendations across Europe compromised the expected positive
impact of rising vaccination rates and establishment of the
European Digital Covid Certificate. Better coordination between
governments is expected to see a broader opening of international
markets in the months ahead, boosted significantly by the
re-establishment of transatlantic travel for vaccinated travelers.
Long-haul demand, however, will significantly lag behind the
recovery in intra-European travel.

Latin American carriers will see losses cut from $5.6 billion
this year to $3.7 billion in 2022. Most of the region’s markets
are open, but with some notable exceptions (Argentina for
example). The strength of the US-Latin American market will be a
major contributing factor to improvement. Significant
restructuring costs as the regions carriers adjust to the new
business realities will weigh on financial performance, keeping
the region in a collective loss.

Middle Eastern carriers
will see very limited improvement in their financial performance
from a $6.8 billion loss in 2021 to a $4.6 billion loss in 2022.
Without large domestic markets, the region’s major carriers rely
significantly on connecting traffic, especially to Asia-Pacific
which has been slow to re-open to international traffic.

African carriers will see a very slow pace of recovery in
financial performance from a $1.9 billion loss in 2021 to a $1.5
billion loss in 2022. Low vaccination rates across the continent
are expected to severely dampen demand throughout 2022. The slight
improvement is built on the expectation of some recovery in
intra-Africa travel and travel to some tourist destination with
relatively higher vaccination rates.

See latest

Travel Industry News,

and other
news regarding:









IATA AGM to Take Place in China for Third Time in 2022 
ICAO Adopts International Standard for Vaccine Certificates 
SLH Promotes Sustainable Hotels with Launch of the ‘Considerate Collection’ 
Global Air Transport Industry Commits to Net Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050 
Eve Signs LOI to Develop UAM Ecosystem in Latin America with Avantto 
Airline Industry Losses in 2020-2022 Expected to Reach US$201 Billion 
Centara to Open 607-Room Resort in Dubai 
Korean Air Receives Airbus A220 Best Operational Excellence 2021 Award 
ICAO Adopts International Standard for Vaccine Certificates 
Qatar Airways Launches Themed Stopover Packages 
Embraer Reports Strong Demand for Agricultural Aircraft 
New COVD19 Screening Facilities Open at KLIA 
Air Canada to Expand Cold Chain Handling Capabilities at Toronto Pearson 
Flyr Implements Range of Airline Solutions from SITA 
UNWTO Partners Netflix to Promote Screen Tourism 
Gulf Air Launches Flights Between Bahrain and Tel Aviv, Israel 
Beyeonics Surgical and Beyeonics Vision Raise $36 Million 
Qantas to Resume Int. Flights in November; SYD-LHR and SYD-LAX First 
Thai AirAsia to Expand Domestic Network 
Kew Green to Manage First Collection of Light Human Hotels 
Int. Passenger Demand Down 68.8% in August; All Regions Show Improvement 
Qatar Airways to Increase Flights to Egypt 
CWT Partners TST to Simplify Tax and Immigration Compliance for Travellers 
Bombardier Signs Firm Order for 20 Challenger 3500 Business Jets 
Simpson Marine Sells Two Luxury Sanlorenzo Yachts 
Qatar Airways Resumes Flights to Medina, Saudi Arabia 
Sabre Launches SynXis Property Hub 
Kew Green Signs Three More Hotels in Bangkok, Thailand 
Air France Takes Delivery of First of 60 Airbus A220 Aircraft 
Boeing Appoints Kuljit Ghata-Aura as President – Middle East, Turkey and Africa 
Hokkaido Air System Takes Delivery of Third ATR 42-600 
Sebastien Carre Returns to Mauritius as RVP and GM of Four Seasons Resort 
Air Cargo Demand in August Increases 7.7% on Pre-COVID19 Levels 
Argentina Extends Contract to Host MotoGP for Further Three Years 
Korean Air Completes Largest IT Modernization Project in its 52-Year History 
Neil Palmer Joins Six Senses as COO 
Radisson Appoints Evelyn Wong as VP Finance, Tax & IT – Asia Pacific 
American Airlines Signs Codeshare Agreement with IndiGo 
Executive Appointments at Outrigger Hospitality in Thailand 
Finnair Expands Pre-Departure Service to Include COVID19 PCR Tests 
Virgin Hotels in Chicago and Dallas Trial Virdee Check-In Kiosks 
Boeing to Produce Five P-8A Poseidon Aircraft for Germany 
Pathfndr Appoints Joseph K Jose as Vice President of Business Operations 
Emirates to Increase Use of Airbus A380 
Asia Pacific Airlines Carried Just 1.4 Million Int. Passengers in August 
Sabre Expands Partnership with Shiji Distribution Solutions 
Air Canada Resumes Flights to India 
Emirates to Implement IATA Travel Pass Across Global Network 
SAS to Increase Flights Between Stockholm and Oslo to New York 
Swiss-Belhotel Upgrades SBEC Benefits Programme 
Boeing Delivers First Block III F/A-18 Super Hornet to US Navy 
Qantas Updates Flying Schedule; Plans to Reroute Perth – London Flights 
Qatar Airways Extends Commitment to Combatting Illegal Wildlife Trade 
EmbraerX and Pyka to Accelerate Growth of Autonomous Agriculture 
United Airlines Makes it Easier to Use Credits 
Cyril Kongo Designs Special Cabin for Airbus Corporate Jets 
AATA and MAB to Collaborate on Pilot Training in Malaysia 
India Formalises Acquisition of 56 Airbus C295 Aircraft 
Bombardier Expands Partnership with GETI to Include Dallas Service Centre 
Marriott Sets Net Zero 2050 Goal 
Qatar Airways to Launch Flights to Almaty, Kazakhstan 
CWT Appoints Joel Hanson as SD Global Innovation Business Development 
Emirates SkyCargo Upgrades Booking Process with CargoWise 
Airbus to Manufacture Three Full-Size Prototype Aircraft Wings 
Four Seasons Anguilla Appoints Nicole Lingos Spillane as DOSM 
Finnair and Turkish Airlines to Codeshare 
Eve Urban Air Mobility Signs MOU with Bristow Group 
Boeing Forecasts China’s Airlines to Require 8,700 New Planes by 2040 
LATAM Airlines to Save Fuel with Airbus’ Descent Profile Optimisation Software 
World Air Transport Summit and IATA AGM to Take Place in Boston 3-5 October 
Bangkok Airways to Resume BKK – TDX Flights on 1 October 
Sabre Travel Solutions Appoints Nicole Regel as Senior Director – AU, NZ, SP 
Airbus to Deliver US-Completed Commercial Aircraft with SAF 
Claude Sauter Appointed GM of The Slate Resort in Phuket, Thailand 
Solomon Islands Tourism Industry in Mourning as Jo Tuamoto Passes Away 
Cobham Signs New Pool Program Agreement with Embraer 
The Langham, Jakarta – Exclusive Video Interview with Gaylord Lamy, GM 
Pan Pacific to Open 13 More Properties by End-June 2024 
First Flight of CityAirbus NextGen Scheduled for 2023 
British Airways Extends Tier Status of Executive Club Members 
Emirates to Increase Flights to USA 
Marriott Signs W Hotel in Florence, Italy 
Airbus Testing Engine Back-Up System for Helicopters 
Boeing to Open Final Assembly Facility in Australia 
Cathay Pacific Reports Increase in Passenger and Cargo Numbers 
Eve Partners Helipass to Promote eVTOL Flights in France 
Guillaume Daudin Joins ATR as Senior Vice President – Programmes 
Wharf Hotels Opens Regional Sales Office in Guangzhou, China 
Richard Poskanzer Appointed GM of Four Seasons Hotel Nashville 
Cathay Pacific Pledges to Use SAF for 10% of Fuel Consumption by 2030 
WHO Appoints Gordon Brown as Ambassador for Global Health Financing 
Centel Appoints Gun Srisompong as CFO 
QantasLink Launches Flights Between Brisbane and Proserpine 
Alliance Airlines Signs Multi-Year Services Agreement with Embraer 
Qatar Airways Joins ICAO’s Global Coalition for Sustainable Aviation 
United Airlines to Launch Flights Between Washington, D.C. and Lagos, Nigeria 
Outrigger Hospitality Appoints Avery Aoki as CFO 
Cricket Hong Kong Appoints Geoffrey Ma as Honorary President 
Braathens, ATR and Neste to Accelerate 100% SAF Certification 
Boeing to Build MQ-25 Stingray Factory in Illinois, USA 
Rolls-Royce’s All-Electric Spirit of Innovation Aircraft Takes Off for First Time 
Rosewood Signs Residential Project in Lido Key, Florida 
Etihad Airways Signs New Multi-Solution Technology Agreement with Sabre 
Emirates to Recruit 3,500 Cabin Crew and Airport Services Employees 
Susan Wheatley Returns to UK as DOSM of The Peninsula London 
Air New Zealand and Airbus to Research Hydrogen-Powered Aircraft in Aotearoa 
Nihat Yucel Joins Four Seasons Hotel Alexandria at San Stefano as GM 
Phoenix Police Department Orders Five Airbus H125 Helicopters 
Six Senses to Take Over Management of Luxury Resort in Maldives 
CWT to Recapitalize Business 
Lufthansa Group Signs Extensive New Distribution Agreement with Travelport 
Pan Pacific Opens First Hotel in UK as UOL Completes One Bishopsgate Plaza 
British Airways to Launch Flights to Azorean Islands of Sao Miguel and Terceira 
Changi Renews ACI’s Airport Health Accreditation 
GlobalData Reports Decline in Travel and Tourism Sector Deals in August 
Hotel Group in Cambodia Makes COVID19 Test Mandatory for Every Guest 
Hyatt Signs Luxury Hotel in Changsha, China 
Marriott Adds Domes of Corfu in Greece to Autograph Collection 
Emirates Expands Virtual Reality Experiences to the Oculus Store 
Swedish Project to Establish Technical Roadmap Towards Fossil-Free Aviation 
Etihad Airways Signs Multi-Solution Technology Agreement with Amadeus 
Bombardier Unveils New Version of Challenger 350 
MQ-25 T1 Refuels U.S. Navy F-35C Lightning II Fighter Jet for First Time 
Mandarin Oriental Signs Property on Wilshire Boulevard, Beverly Hills 
Breeze Airways Increases A220-300 Order to 80; Unveils Livery 
IATA Appoints Philip Goh as Regional Vice President – Asia Pacific 
Plaza Premium Signs First Airport Lounge in Japan 
HD Videos and Interviews 
Podcasts from HD Video Interviews 
RSS News Feed and Ticker 
Travel Trade Shows 
High-Res Picture Galleries 
Travel News Asia – Latest Travel Industry News 

cheap bali packages, bali holidays packages, bali trip packages, angkor wat tour package, ho chi minh city tour package, siem reap holiday packages, hanoi and halong bay tour package, ubud package holidays
Provider of online holiday packages, offering great service and various packages with special discounted rates. More than 15 years operating in accordance with the highest ethical and business standards.


Related Post

Virtual visit to Wat Arun

Posted by - January 14, 2021 0
A 360-degree virtual tour in the ordination hall of Wat Arun Wat Arun Wat Arun Ratchawararam has introduced a virtual…

Executive Appointments at Delta Cargo

Posted by - January 19, 2021 0
(12 Jan 2021) Delta Cargo has appointed Jannie Davel as Managing Director – Commercial and Vishal Bhatnagar as Managing Director…

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *