Boeing has forecast a demand for 2,945 new
airplanes in the Middle East valued at $685 billion over the next
two decades, as the industry recovers from the ongoing global
COVID19 pandemic in the medium and long term.
The projection is part of Boeing’s 2020 Commercial
Market Outlook (CMO), an annual forecast of 20-year demand for
commercial airplanes and services.
The 2020 CMO reflects the impact of the pandemic
and Boeing’s view of near, medium and long-term market dynamics
globally and regionally.
Commercial aviation and services markets
will continue to face significant challenges earlier in the
20-year forecast, while showing resilience and a return to growth
trend over the longer term.
Over the next 20 years, passenger traffic growth
in the Middle East is projected to increase by an average of 4.3%
per year, above the global average of 4% growth per year.
“In recent decades, several airlines in the Middle
East have leveraged their geographical position to connect rapidly
growing Asian economies and the more mature markets in Europe,”
said Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing.
“At the historical crossroads connecting Europe, Africa and Asia,
the Middle East and its airlines will remain a critical hub of
sixth-freedom passenger flows and cargo throughout the 20-year
outlook.”
The Middle East commercial fleet is expected to
reach 3,500 by 2039 – more than doubling the current 1,510
airplanes – to address replacement needs and growth, according to
the CMO.
Globally, with key industry drivers expected to remain
resilient through the forecast’s 20-year period, the commercial
fleet is expected to return to its growth trend, generating demand
for more than 43,000 new airplanes.
Additional highlights in the 2020 Middle East CMO
include the following:
– In the widebody segment, Boeing forecasts Middle
East demand for 1,280 new passenger airplanes by 2039. While this
reflects challenges to long-haul markets that are both typical to
air-travel shocks and specifically due to the pandemic’s impact on
international travel, the CMO forecasts a recovery to pre-pandemic
trends in the medium and long term. The Middle East’s replacement
demand is also a growing share of new widebody airplane demand.
– In the near-term, domestic and short-haul markets
around the world are expected to recover earlier from pandemic
effects. Middle East single-aisle seat capacity more than doubled
over the past five years for destinations outside the region. The
CMO projects a near tripling of the single-aisle fleet by 2039 to
further serve this growing segment of the market.
– Since 2000, Middle East carriers have grown their
share of world air cargo traffic from 4% in 1999 to 13% as they
rapidly grew their widebody passenger and freighter fleets.
Freighters represent a continued area of opportunity for Middle
East airlines with the fleet projected to nearly double from 80 in
2019 to 150 by 2039.
– Boeing projects a 20-year opportunity for Middle
East commercial services valued at $725 billion, including
requirements for supply chain and maintenance, repair and overhaul
capability focused on newer airplane technologies and software
solutions to reduce operating costs and improve efficiency.
– Boeing’s 2020 Pilot and Technician Outlook
forecasts that the region is estimated to require 223,000 new
aviation personnel by 2039, including 58,000 pilots, 59,000
technicians and 106,000 cabin crew members.
“While aviation has seen periodic demand shocks
since the beginning of the jet age, the industry has recovered
from these downturns every time as aviation plays an integral role
in the global economy,” Hulst added. “The current market
disruption will shape airline fleet strategies long into the
future as airlines focus on building versatile fleets that provide
future network flexibility, maximizing capability while minimizing
risk and improving efficiency and sustainability.”
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