(16 Apr 2021)
Boeing has forecast that global and diversified
funding will continue to flow into the aircraft financing sector
as the aviation industry navigates the global pandemic and vaccine
deployment continues to accelerate.

“Financiers and investors understand the
industry’s resilience and the long-term fundamentals that make
aircraft a valuable asset class,” said Tim Myers, president of
Boeing Capital Corporation. “Despite the unprecedented impacts of
COVID19 on the global aerospace industry, there generally
continues to be liquidity in the market for our customers, and we
expect it to further improve as travel begins to rebound.”

The 2021 Current Aircraft Finance Market Outlook
(CAFMO), first published in 2019, reflects Boeing’s near-term view
of market dynamics and assesses financing sources for new
commercial airplane deliveries. Due to the ongoing impacts of the
pandemic, the 2021 CAFMO excludes its customary one and five-year
industry financing projections.

Boeing 737 MAX 7 reg: N7201S. Picture by Steven Howard of TravelNewsAsia.com Click to enlarge.

“Industry fundamentals continue to show varying
degrees of strength in different markets depending on the regional
trends of the global pandemic,” Myers said. “We expect that
capital will continue to be routed into the sector by established
players and as new entrants seek opportunities during the
industry’s recovery.”

The 2021 CAFMO reports the aircraft financing
environment ended 2020 with enough liquidity to finance
deliveries, but with stresses particularly in the bank debt and
tax equity markets.

Highlights include the following:

– At the industry level, commercial aircraft
delivery funding volume totaled $59 billion, a 40% decrease from
2019 levels.

– The top sources of Boeing delivery financing
were cash, bank debt and capital markets, and 100% of Boeing
deliveries were financed by third parties.

– Aircraft lessors executed a significant volume
of sale-leaseback transactions, and the industry-wide leased fleet
climbed to 46%.

– Capital markets for aviation volumes were 70%
higher than 2019.

– Commercial banks shored up the aviation
industry’s need for liquidity early in the pandemic, but long-term
bank debt became one of the less utilized forms of financing.

– Institutional investors and funds continued to
seek aviation exposure, stepping up as some financiers paused and
sector credit spreads widened.

– Export credit agencies remain a small but
important funding source during the pandemic.

– Credit-enhanced financing saw further progress
as a complementary funding source, totaling to 4% of the financing
mix for Boeing deliveries.

The Boeing 2020 Commercial Market Outlook, a
separate annual 20-year forecast addressing the market for
commercial airplanes and services, projects passenger traffic
growth at an average rate of 4% per year. The global commercial
fleet is expected to reach 48,400 by 2039, up from 25,900
airplanes today.

The 2021 CAFMO and regional
financing data is available on Boeing’s website
here.

2021 Current Aircraft Finance
Market Outlook (CAFMO)

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